基于FCM的UAV事故成因预测方法

无人机安全问题已经成为航空领域一个亟待解决的难题,坠机事故不但会造成装备和财产损失,而且也会给高技术安全带来巨大风险.在分析相关坠机事故统计的基础上,提出了一种影响无人机安全的事故因素划分原则和方法,建立了无人机事故成因预测的FCM模型.利用FCM的知识表示和推理可以预测出系统达到稳定状态时各因素的状态值,通过关联度计算对事故的影响因素进行排序,得到诱发无人机事故的主要因素.实例验证和分析证明该方法对于无人机事故成因的预测是可行的.

Prediction method of UAV accident causations based on FCM

Unmanned aerial vehicle security has become a pressing hard problem in aviation fields, crash accidents will not only cause a loss of equipment and property, but also bring a huge risk to the high-tech security. Based on the analysis of some crash statistics in point, a division principle and technique of accident influential factors which may take impact on UAV security was proposed, and then an FCM model of unmanned aerial vehicle accident causations prediction was constructed. With the knowledge representation and reasoning of FCM, state values of the factors can be predicted when the system arrived at steady state; finally, the main factor inducing UAV accident can be gained through the sequence of accident influential factors by correlation calculating. Verification and analysis of an UAV crash case proved that the method for accident causations prediction of unmanned aerial vehicle is feasible.