阜康市绿洲耕地变化与人口关系研究

以新疆干旱区中等城市——阜康市为研究区，采用1949～2005年的统计资料，运用Statistica 6．0统计软件，对其绿洲耕地的时空变化以及人口变化进行定量分析，得出50多年来人口对阜康市绿洲耕地数量和质量的影响。鉴于该绿洲的发展现状，提出了解决人地矛盾的对策和建议：控制人口总量、有效地保护耕地、提高耕地的利用效益、努力保护和节约使用水资源、提高土地的开发整理潜力等措施来减轻人口因子给耕地变化带来的影响。充分体现严格保护耕地、增加农业投入、促进农业科技进步、增强农业综合生产能力。图2，表1，参13。

Correlation Analysis of Cultivated Land Use Change and Population in Fukang,Xinjiang Since 1949

With Fukang, a medium-sized city in an arid area of Xinjiang, as the research area, a quantitative analysis of the changes of arable land and human population over time were made based on the statistical data covering the period from 1949 to 2005 by using Statistica 6.0. Based on this, the research obtains the effect of human population on the quality and quantity of arable land in Fukang over the past 50 or so years. In view of the current state of the Fukang oasis, we ppropose the following countermeasures to tackle the conflict between population growth and land preservation： controlling human population, conserving arable land in an effective way, improving the efficiency in land use, protecting and economizing on the water resources, and enhancing the potential of land exploitation to alleviate the human effect on arable land. The countermeasures embody what has been stressed by General Secretary Hu Jintao in his report at the 17th National Congress Session of the CCP： strictly protecting arable land, increasing investment in agriculture, promoting advances in science related to agricuhure and enhancing the comprehensive capacity of agriculture.