黄河三角洲互花米草、碱蓬种群变化及扩散模拟

将卫星遥感、GIS空间分析技术和生物种群扩散模型相结合，利用1996、2006、2016年黄河三角洲滨海湿地3期遥感影像，采用面向对象分类方法、景观转移矩阵、景观重心转移模型分析互花米草和碱蓬动态变化，并利用CA-Markov模型对2026年的演变趋势开展预测模拟．结果表明:1）在时间上，20 a来互花米草总面积由1996年的3.45 km2增长到2016年的25.14 km2，碱蓬总面积呈大幅度下降；在空间上，互花米草发生了连通阻断，其重心由胜利油田边缘向河口方向移动，碱蓬重心向陆源方向有一个小幅度后退．2）模拟预测2026年互花米草面积为26.67 km2，碱蓬面积为26.15 km2．3）2种植被在2006—2016年转移变化剧烈，20 a来滨海湿地人类活动呈增加的趋势．从预测结果分析看，20 a间黄河三角洲河口受重大人工改道、初期的断流、风暴潮等人为和自然灾害的强烈影响，互花米草、碱蓬等滨海湿地植被数量造成短时序变化，导致模拟精度不高．如果不对互花米草加以人为控制，到2026年互花米草面积的激增将对整个黄河三角洲地区生态环境造成显著影响． 

Simulation of dynamic changes and diffusion of typical vegetation populations in coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta

Satellite remote sensing, GIS spatial analysis and biological population diffusion were combined to understand temporal and spatial dynamic changes and development trends of typical wetland vegetation in the Yellow River Delta．Remote sensing images of coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta in 1996, 2006, and 2016 were used for object-oriented classification, landscape type transfer matrix, and Land Use Gravity Transfer to outline dynamic changes．CA-Markov model in IDRISI 17.0 was used to forecast changes in coastal wetland in 2026. Forecasting and analysis of future changes in Spartina alterniflora and Suaeda salsa were shown．Spartina alterniflora was found to increase from 3.45 km2 in 1996 to 25.14 km2 in 2016, whereas Suaeda salsa decreased significantly．Oilfield development on the Yellow River was found to have produced a Spartina alterniflora connectivity block, center of Spartina alterniflora gravity had moved from edge of Shengli Oilfield to estuary．The center of Suaeda salsa gravity had receded slightly inland. Forecast for 2026 indicated that Spartina alterniflora would reach 26.67 km2 and Suaeda salsa 26.15 km2．From 2006 to 2016, Spartina alterniflora and Suaeda salsa had changed dramatically. Human activities in coastal wetlands have increased over 20 years. Strong influences by natural disasters (diversions, cutoffs, storm surges and others) in the Yellow River Delta estuary in the 20 year period had seriously impacted the growth environment of Spartina alterniflora and Suaeda salsa, resulting in low accuracy of individual prediction．If this growth trend is not put under control, swelling of Spartina alterniflora in 2026 will likely negatively impact the ecological environment in the Yellow River Delta．