能源消费结构变化及其环境效益实证研究

以南京市规模以上工业企业主要能源消费情况和污染物排放情况为研究对象,通过运用灰色GM(1.1)模型和马尔可夫模型对能源消费总量和结构进行预测,并通过分析能源消费结构变化量与污染物排放变化量间的关系,研究能源消费结构变化产生的环境效益,为合理制定能源消费政策提供一定的依据.预测结果显示能源消费总量缓慢增长,各能源间存在一定程度的转换,能源消费结构出现小幅波动,环境效益主要表现为原煤、原油比重的降低,天然气、其它经加工的二次能源和电力比重的上升对污染物二氧化硫、烟尘、粉尘和废气排放量的减少起到积极作用.

Empirical Study on Energy Consumption Structure Change and Its Environmental Benefits

The research based on the data of main energy consumption structure and pollutant emissions of major industries in Nanjing city.Used grey model GM（1.1）and Markov model to predict total energy consumption and energy consumption structure,and by studying the connection between variable quantities of energy consumption structure and emissions of pollutants,analyses the environmental benefits that generated by energy consumptionstructure change.This can provide basis for making reasonable energy consumption policies.The results show that the total energy consumption will have slow growth and energies convert to one another to some extent,energy consumption structure will have slight fluctuation.Environmental benefits is mainly reflected in raw coal and crude oil proportions dropping,natural gas,other secondary energy and electricity proportions rising which are positive for decreasing pollutant emissions of sulfur dioxide,soot,dust and exhaust gas.