战争决策行为建模与仿真的研究

目前，世界上局部战争和国际危机此起彼伏，因此，运用科学的手段和方法，展开针对可能引发军事冲突或爆发战争的危机的决策行为的研究，具有重大的现实意义。它有助于揭示战争危机的内在规律，使得危机朝着我们期望的方向发展。本文以美国为研究对象，全面阐述了影响个人决策、组织决策和群体决策的非理性行为约束变量，深入研究了美国战争危机的决策机构，分析了其决策过程。以此为基础，采用新的建模与仿真技术-agent技术，探讨了个人决策、组织决策和群体决策的agent技术建模机制，建立了基于Agent技术的战争决策行为模型体系结构，并根据编程实践，ZEUS和MAGE两种agent开发系统正确比较的基础上，给出了在两种开发系统下实现战争决策行为模型的编程构想。它为分析美国战争危机决策提供了理论和方法上的指导，具有很强的实践意义和现实意义。

The Research on Modeling and Simulation of Warfare Decision-Making Behavior

At present, local wars or international crises break out in high frequency. Therefore, there is the great practical significance to research on the decision-making behavior of crises using scientific means and methods that can result in military conflicts or wars. It helps us reveal the internal rules of warfare, which make the crisis evolve in the direction expected. Selecting US as the object of study, this paper thoroughly discusses the irrational behavior constraint variants that have much influence on the individual, organizational and group decision-making, intensively researches the organ of warfare decision-making of America, and analyzes its procedure of decision-making. On this basis, this paper applies the technology of agent, new technology of modeling and simulation, discuses the modeling mechanism of individual, organizational and group decision-making, and puts forward the model architecture of warfare decision-making (WDM) behavior in terms of the technology of agent. Also, according to the practice of software programming, this paper compares two development systems, ZEUS and MAGE, and gives the tentative plan to realize the model of WDM using these two systems respectively. Therefore, there is great practical and realistic significance to provide the theoretical and methodological guidance to analyze the WDM of America.