天水农业气候年景分析与主要粮食作物布局研究

利用天水农业气象试验站1965年-2007年，43a≥10℃积温和作物主生长季4月～9月降水资料，采用系统工程风险决策原理，得出天水地区不同热量和降水气候年型粮食作物均以种植玉米和冬小麦为最优；同时，采用作物最大期望收益值法对玉米、冬小麦、马铃薯3大粮食作物最小种植比例进行约束，并综合各气候年型不同作物种植比例、社会需求，建立了最优作物布局方案，得出了天水市玉米、冬小麦、马铃薯3大作物种植比例分别为§8％～34％、48％～54％和14％～12％之间．

An Analysis of Tianshui's Agricultural Climate and a Study on the Layout of the Main Crops

Based on the accumulated data of temperature（≥10℃）and precipitation from April to September, which is the main growth period of crops, our station has obtained the results that the wheat and corn are best adapted to all different types of heat and precipitation in Tianshui. According to the principle of risk decision-making project, we have confined the minimum area of wheat, corn and potatoes and expected the biggest harvests. The optimal model for planting has been set up and the planting areas of corn, winter wheat and potatoes are from 38% to 34%, 48% to 54% and 14% to 12% respectively.