不同降水驱动的SWAT模型参数不确定性研究

以抚河流域与黑河流域为研究区,应用4种降水产品(CMORPH CMA、CMFD、CMADS、MSWEP)驱动SWAT模型模拟日流量,评估4种降水产品在湿润区与干旱区的适用性；使用自适应降维评估法选出流域的敏感参数,并进行一致性检验。结果表明:抚河流域4种降水产品的纳什效率系数(NSE)均在0.70以上,其中CMORPH CMA和CMADS的NSE均能达到0.82；黑河流域CMORPH CMA和CMADS的NSE大于等于0.76,而CMFD和MSWEP的NSE分别为0.72和0.74。抚河流域4种降水产品具有相同的敏感参数；黑河流域CMORPH CMA和CMADS有相同的6个敏感参数,而CMFD和MSWEP则分别有5个和8个敏感参数。4种降水产品在湿润流域和干旱流域都能得到较好的应用效果,但是CMORPH CMA和CMADS的模拟效果要优于CMFD和MSWEP。不同的降水输入也会对模型参数敏感性分析的结果产生影响,当降水表现越接近时,所筛选的敏感性参数也越相似。

Study on parameter uncertainty in SWAT model driven by different precipitation

By taking the Fuhe Basin and Heihe Basin as studying areas, this study employs the SWAT model driven by four distinct precipitation products (CMORPH CMA, CMFD, CMADS, MSWEP) to simulate the daily flow and evaluate the hydrological performance of these products in both humid and arid regions. Meanwhile, the sensitive parameters of watershed were selected by the adaptive method for factor fixing and subsequently the consistency check was performed to ensure their reliability. The results indicate that all four precipitation products achieved NSE values above 0.7, with CMORPH CMA and CMADS outperforming the rest by achieving 0.82 in the Fuhe Basin, while in the Heihe Basin, they scored 0.76, compared to CMFD and MSWEP which scored 0.72 and 0.74, respectively. Moreover, in the Fuhe Basin, all four precipitation products share the same sensitive parameters, but in the Heihe Basin, CMORPH CMA and CMADS have six shared sensitive parameters, while CMFD and MSWEP have five and eight sensitive parameters, respectively. These findings suggest that all four precipitation products can be successfully applied in both humid and arid basins, but the simulation performance of CMORPH CMA and CMADS is superior to that of CMFD and MSWEP. Additionally, the similarity of precipitation performance will enhance the similarity of selected sensitivity parameters during the model analysis.