| 基于拓扑预测与GM组合模型的舰船运动预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵爽,安宇芳,王慧敬.基于拓扑预测与GM组合模型的舰船运动预报[J].高师理科学刊,2014(1):7-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵爽 安宇芳 王慧敬 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]黑龙江工程学院数学系,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨工程大学自动化学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目（12521459） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对舰船运动系统的复杂性及非线性，提出采用灰色拓扑预测模型、GM（1，1）模型建立舰船运动的单项预测模型，并对各单项模型的优缺点进行了比较分析．采用标准差法建立基于拓扑预测与GM（1，1）模型的舰船运动组合预测模型．结果表明，组合预测模型的预测精度高于各单项模型的精度，该组合模型可作为提高舰船运动数据预测精度的有效工具．
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色拓扑模型 舰船运动 组合模型 |
Ship motion prediction based on combination model of topology prediction and GM |
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| ZHAO Shuang,AN Yu-fang,WANG Hui-jing.Ship motion prediction based on combination model of topology prediction and GM[J].Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University,2014(1):7-11. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Shuang AN Yu-fang WANG Hui-jing |
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| Institution: | 1 Department of Mathematics, HeilongjianglnstituteofTechnology, Harbin l50001, China 2. School of Automation, Harbin Engineering University, Harbinl50001, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Aimed against complexity and non-linearity of ship motion system, adopt grey topology prediction model and GM（1, 1） model to construct forecasting models of ship motion respectively, as well as, analyzed and compared the advantages and the disadvantages of these models. Gave the combination model of ship motion predictionwith the standard deviation based on the above two models. The results shown that the combined model has a high prediction accuracy compare with other two prediction models, and the combined model can also take as an effective tool to improve prediction accuracy in ship motion forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | grey topology model ship motion combination model |
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