| 有限记忆静态灰色冰雪融水径流预报模型及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 马成军,李智录,李抗彬.有限记忆静态灰色冰雪融水径流预报模型及其应用[J].西安理工大学学报,2007,23(3):314-317. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马成军 李智录 李抗彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 宁夏水利水电勘测设计院,宁夏,银川,750004
2. 西安理工大学,水利水电学院,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据塔什库尔干河流域的径流资料及喀什探空站的气温资料,采用有限记忆静态灰色模型建立了该流域的冰雪融水径流预测模型。通过灰色关联度分析对各预报因子进行筛选、建模预测,将该模型与GM(1,1)模型进行了比较。结果表明,该模型能够较好地模拟预测塔什库尔干河流域的冰雪融水径流过程,具有实际的应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 有限记忆 灰色模型 关联分析 冰雪融水 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4710（2007）03-0314-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-03-06 |
The Limited Memory Static Grey Ice-Snow Melting Runoff Forecasting Model and Its Application |
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| MA Cheng-jun,LI Zhi-lu,LI Kang-bin.The Limited Memory Static Grey Ice-Snow Melting Runoff Forecasting Model and Its Application[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,2007,23(3):314-317. |
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| Authors: | MA Cheng-jun LI Zhi-lu LI Kang-bin |
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| Abstract: | According to Tashikuergan river drainage area runoff data and Kashi sounding station temperature data,the limited memory static grey model is used to establish the runoff forecasting model of ice-snow melting in this paper.When establishing the model,using the grey cognate degree analysis method screens the important forecast factor of each item,and then establishing the model is forecasted.The calculated results indicate that the limited memory static grey model is able to simulate and forecast the drainage area runoff process of ice-snow melting better,and the model is of actual application value. |
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| Keywords: | limited memory grey model cognate degree analysis ice-snow melting water |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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