基于证据推理的供应商绩效评价与决策

针对供应商绩效评价与选择这一不确定多属性决策问题,采用证据推理方法建立一个具有不确定性包含有定量和定性的具有多层次结构的多属性决策分析模型.在证据理论框架下,结合信息变换技术,对定性和定量的评价信息按照综合属性的评价等级变换成统一的分布评估形式,考虑属性的权重构造基本概率分配函数,利用证据推理算法综合所有的属性,从而完成方案的综合评价.运用多属性效用理论决策方法确定供应商的选优排序.结合供应商绩效评价与选择实例说明该方法的有效性.

Performance Evaluation for Selection of Supplier and Decision-Making Based on Evidential Reasoning

To solve the uncertain multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem of the performance evaluation and selection of suppliers, a multi-level MADM model is developed quantitatively and qualitatively via the evidential reasoning (ER) for uncertainties. Combining ER with information transformation the quantitative and qualitative information are expressed in form of unified distribution evaluation according to the grades of synthesized attributes. Then, the basic probability distribution function involving the weights of attributes is deduced to integrate all the attributes together by ER algorithm, thus giving a comprehensive evaluation to the MADM problem. And the preferred ranking of suppliers is determined on the basis of the theory of multiple attribute utility. An example is given for the evaluation and selection of suppliers to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.