灰色无偏GM(1,1)模型在生活能源电力消费量预测中的应用

利用2000-2005年全国生活能源电力消费量统计数据,建立了一个电力消费量预测的灰色无偏GM(1,1)模型.模拟结果表明:灰色无偏GM(1,1)模型比较合理地反应了生活能源中电力的消费趋势,并且预测精度较高、误差较小,为电力消费量预测提供了一个科学而有效的方法.

Application of the Grey Unbiased GM(1,1) Model to the Electricity Consumption Forecast of Living Energy

Based on the statistic data from 2000 to 2005 about the electricity consumption of living energy of China,a grey unbiased GM(1,1) model is established.The simulation result shows that the grey unbiased GM(1,1) model relatively reasonably reflects the electricity consumption trend of living energy,that the precision of the prediction is relatively high and that the prediction error is comparatively low.In this paper,we obtain an effective performance for the electricity consumption forecast.