安徽省农民工市民化推拉力效果分析

农民工市民化是深度城市化的重要组成部分,以人口迁移推拉理论为基础,建立了推动力、摩擦力和吸拉力对农民工市民化作用效果模型.根据安徽省1981—2012年相关数据,分析了农民工市民化影响因素的弹性系数,发现吸拉力弹性系数最大,推动力次之,摩擦力最小.进一步研究发现,农民工市民化动力主要来自工业化和城市化发展,而农业现代化整体水平不高和制度变迁缓慢一定程度上阻碍了农民工市民化进程,城乡严重对立的二元经济社会结构使得传统推拉力失效.

The Push - pull Analysis of Urbanization of the Migrant Rural Workers of Anhui Province

Urbanization of migrant workers is an important part of the deep urbanization. Establishing a model about urbanization of the migrant rural workers regarding push,pull and friction to analyze the factors' elasticity with 1981-2012 relevant data of Anhui based on the push-pull migration theory. The preliminary study indicates that the maximum elasticity is pull,push is the second and the minimum elasticity is friction. Further study show that the motive power of urbanization of the migrant rural workers mainly comes from the development of industrialization and urbanization,and the low level of agricultural modernization and institutional change hinder the development of industrialization and urbanization. What's more,the urban-rural dual structure negates the effects of the traditional push-pull effort.