安徽省城镇化与经济发展的关系研究

城镇化正逐步成为推动经济发展的主要动力.基于安徽省1978—2012年的城镇化率和人均GDP数据,建立数学模型与向量自回归模型对安徽省城镇化与经济发展的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,两者数量水平具有双对数关系,同时经济发展对城镇化具有明显的推动作用,而城镇化对经济发展的贡献则相对有限.根据新经济地理学理论分析原因,安徽省过于注重发展大型城市而忽视小城镇建设,造成城镇化质量滞后于城镇化水平.安徽省需要调整城镇化发展动力,重点开发县域,转变政府职能,推进城镇化与经济协调发展.

Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Development of Anhui Province

Urbanization gradually becomes the mainspring to promote the development of economy. This paper has conducted an empirical research on the relationship between urbanization and economic development in Anhui province by establishing a mathematical model and VAR model based on the data of urbanization rate and per-capita GDP 1978-2012. Results indicate that both have double logarithmic relationship on number level.At the same time,economic development has obvious contribution to the economic development,but urbanization is relatively limited. According to the new economic geography,Anhui province pays too much attention to the development of big cities in Anhui province and neglects small towns,causing urbanization quality lagging behind urbanization level. Anhui province needs to promote coordinate development between urbanization and economic development by adjusting the urbanization development power,focusing on developing counties,transformating government function.