基于综合指数法的西安市房地产泡沫测度实证研究

随着国民经济的高速增长，我国房地产价格呈现出不断攀升的态势，房价的不断上涨迫使人们愈加关心房地产市场是否存在泡沫。文章从房地产价格、房地产供求和房地产信贷3方面出发，选取7个指标对2005~2017 年西安市房地产泡沫进行实证分析，由于各指标之间存在异质性，进而运用综合指数法进行了合成测度，结果表明 2005,2011和 2017 年西安市房地产均存在泡沫。最后，提出我国应从长效机制下进行宏观调控和发展共有产权住房的意见建议。

An Empirical Study on the Measurement of Real Estate Bubble in Xi'an

With the growth of the national economy, China''s real estate prices have shown a rising trend, and rising house prices have forced people to pay more attention to whether there is a bubble in the real estate market. Based on the three aspects of real estate price, real estate supply and demand and real estate credit, this paper selects seven indicators to conduct an empirical analysis of the real estate bubble in Xi''an from 2005 to 2016. Due to the heterogeneity between the indicators, the comprehensive index method is used for the synthetic measurement. The results show that there is a bubble in real estate in Xi''an in 2005, 2006 and 2011. Finally, it puts forward suggestions on China''s macro- control and development of shared property housing under the long-term mechanism.