用灰色理论预测石油总产值

本文介绍了灰色理论及其建模方法,运用它建立了石油工业总产值的灰色预测模型,并与计量经济学模型比较,指出了对上下波功问题,建立灰色模型比建立计量经济学模型拟合程度高。同时用模型计算出了1988、1989、1990、1991等四年的石油工业总产值的预测值。本文最后指出了灰色模型的局限性,提出了克服这一局限性的方法。

GREY THEORY APPLIED TO THE FORECAST OF OIL INDUSTRIAL TOTAL OUTPUT VALUES

In this paper, we have introduced the grey theory and the model establishing method, by which the grey forecast model of industrial total output values is established, and compared the model with the econometric model. The former has higher observation value in fluctuation-range than the latter. Using the grey model, we have computed forecast values of the oil industrial total output values in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, etc. We ve also pointed out the limitation of the grey model and presented the methods of eliminating it.