空气污染对手足口病传播的短期影响效应研究——以温州市为例 |
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作者单位: | ;1.淮阴师范学院数学与统计学院 |
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摘 要: | 基于温州市手足口病2014—2017年周发病数据及同期空气质量数据,建立了广义加性模型,研究了空气污染对周发病数影响的短期效应.结果表明,4种空气污染物SO_2、CO、NO_2和O_3对手足口病周发病数的影响显著且存在滞后效应,滞后期均为1周.单污染物模型显示,SO_2、CO和NO_2这三种气态污染物都是手足口病发病的危险因素,在滞后1周时周平均浓度每增加1μg/m3SO_2、1 mg/m3CO、1μg/m3NO_2,手足口周发病数将分别增加2.8%、43.8%、0.9%;而O_3在滞后1周时周平均浓度每增加1μg/m3,手足口周发病数将减少0.4%.在SO_2、CO、NO_2和O_3组成的11种多污染物模型中,依据QAIC最小原则选出最优模型为双因素SO_2+CO模型.研究结果将为手足口病的防控提供科学依据.
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关 键 词: | 手足口病 广义加性模型 滞后效应 污染物模型 |
Short-term Effects of Air Pollution on the Spreading of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease:A Case Study in Wenzhou |
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Institution: | ,School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University |
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Abstract: | Based on the weekly reported data of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) incidence in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2017 and air quality data in the same period, a generalized additive model was established to study the short-term effects of air pollution on the weekly reported number of incidence. The results showed that the four air pollutants SO_2, CO, NO_2 and O_3 had significant and lagging effects on the weekly number of HFMD incidence, and the lagging period was one week. Single pollutant model showed that SO_2, CO and NO_2 were risk factors for HFMD incidence, and the weekly number of HFMD incidence would increase by 2.8%, 43.8% and 0.9% with the increase of average weekly concentration of every 1 μg/m3 SO_2,1 mg/m3 CO,1 μg/m3 NO_2 after one week delay, while the weekly number of HFMD incidence would decrease by 0.4% with the increase of average weekly concentration of O_3 at every 1/m3 after one week delay. In the 11 multi-pollutant models composed of SO_2, CO, NO_2 and O_3, the SO_2+CO model was selected as the optimal model according to the QAIC minimum principle. Our results will provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. |
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Keywords: | hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD) generalized additive model lagging effect pollutant model |
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