基于未确知性信息的河流纳污能力计算初探

基于河流水环境系统信息不确定性特点，运用未确知数学理论，就未确知信息下一般河流水体纳污能力计算问题进行初步研究．实例分析表明，由水体纳污能力计算模式，依据未确知有理数四则运算法则和未确知数学期望值公式，不仅可以求得河道纳污能力的未确知期望值，还可获得相应纳污能力的主观可信度值．同时，由设定的纳污能力可信度水平，还可确定相应的水体纳污量，这在水污染总量控制决策上具有一定的灵活性和实用性．

Unascertained information based-calculation of water environment capacity of rivers

Based on the indeterminateness of the information about river water environment systems, a study is made on the water environment capacity of common river water bodies by use of the unascertained mathematical theory. By the present method, not only can the unascertained expected value of the water environment capacity of river water bodies be calculated, but also its subjective reliability can be obtained on the basis of the rules of four fundamental operations of unascertained rational numbers. Furthermore, the water environment capacity of water bodies can be determined according to its reliability designed, so the method has a certain flexibility and applicability in decision making for total water pollution control.