环境规制对中国水污染企业的影响—— 基于“两控区”政策的实证研究

利用1998—2006年中国规模以上工业企业数据和县级社会经济数据, 构造面板双重差分模型, 考察“两控区”环境规制政策对水污染企业的影响。研究发现, “两控区”政策对水污染企业产生显著的冲击, 使得水污染企业的产值增长率减少, 新建企业数量和企业存量的增长率也显著下降; “两控区”政策对水污染企业的冲击具有持续性; 相比而言, 经济发达地区的水污染企业受到的影响更大。进一步分析影响政策效果的初始因素, 发现政策开始前教育水平高、人口密度大、平均工资高以及二产占比大的地区, “两控区”政策效果更明显。基于上述结果, 认为“两控区”政策能抑制污染加剧, 其经济代价体现在增加水污染企业负担, 减缓水污染企业产值增长率。污染减少带来的社会福利增加以及企业产值增长速度减缓对社会福利的减少, 二者的相对大小需进一步评估。

Impacts of Environmental Regulation on Water Pollution Enterprisesin China: An Empirical Study Based on “Two Control Zones” Policy

Based on the data of the Annual Census of Enterprises and social-economic data of counties, this articleconstructs a panel-DID model to investigate the impact of “Two Control Zones” policy on enterprises thatdischarge water pollution in China. It is found that the “Two Control Zones” policy has a significant impact onwater pollution enterprises, resulting in a significant decline in the growth rates of output, newly-built enterprisesand the number of existing enterprises in all counties. Moreover, the impact of the “Two Control Zones” policy onenterprises that discharge water pollution is continuous. In the face of the impact of the “Two Control Zones”policy, enterprises that discharge water pollution located in economically developed areas are more affected. Whenanalyzing the initial factors affecting the effect of the policy, it is found that the effect of the “Two Control Zones”policy is more prominent in areas with high education level, high population density, high average wage and largeproportion of the secondary industry. Based on the above conclusions, this article holds that the policy of “TwoControl Zones” has restrained the aggravation of pollution, and its economic cost is reflected in increasing theburden of water pollution enterprises and slowing down the growth rate of output. However, the magnitude of theincrease in social welfare brought about by the reduction of pollution and the slowdown in the growth of enterpriseoutput need to be further assessed.