排放强度约束下的最优经济增长分析

视排放强度为政府据减排目标而设定的一个外生的标准,并将自然资源耗用和治污投入同时纳入到内生人力资本的模型框架,然后利用最优控制理论考察了长期经济增长的内在机制。模型结果显示,在排放强度下降速度满足一定的临界条件下,可持续的最优经济增长以及环境质量改善是能够实现的;在平衡增长路径上,排放强度下降率的提升将导致稳态增长率增加,并相应要求加强人力资本的积累;同时,自然资源的耗用速度必须低于人力资本的增长速度;另外,人力资本生产率、跨期替代弹性以及时间贴现率等也影响着长期经济增长。

Analysis of Optimal Economic Growth under the Constraint of Emission Intensity

Considering emission intensity as an exogenous standard that is set by the government according to its targets of emission intensity reduction,this paper introduces natural resource consumption and pollution control investment into a model of endogenous human capital framework,then studies the internal mechanism of the long-term economic growth by means of the optimal control theory.Our conclusion shows that the sustainable optimal economic growth can be achieved if certain critical conditions are met.On the balanced growth path,the ascension of emission intensity will lead to the increase of output growth rate,and accordingly requirements strengthening human capital accumulation.At the same time,the growth rate of human capital should be higher than consumption rate of natural resources.In addition,human capital productivity,inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and time discount rates also affect the long-term economic growth.