基于STELLA模型的天敌－稻纵卷叶螟系统的情景分析

 利用系统科学的原理与方法研究害虫种群系统的控制是害虫综合治理的重要途径和发展趋势。根据系统动力学的研究思路，构建了描述不同世代稻纵卷叶螟种群子系统之间、稻纵卷叶螟种群与天敌子系统之间相互转化、相互作用的概念框架模型，并建立和明确了描述各子系统之间数量关系的微分方程或函数关系，在此基础上，通过STELLA软件对不同控制方案下稻纵卷叶螟种群的动态进行了模拟和情景分析。结果表明，6种不同模拟情景下，稻纵卷叶螟成虫及天敌种群随时间的动态变化趋势各不相同，主要表现在稻纵卷叶螟各世代成虫及天敌种群密度峰值的大小、出现时间等方面；一定数量天敌的存在，对有效地防治和控制稻纵卷叶螟的发生与发展有着重要意义。如果能在虫害发生初期，适量补充一定数量的天敌以扩大田间种群发展的基数，可提高其对水稻中后期稻纵卷叶螟的控制效能。

Scenarios Analysis of Natural Enemy-Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) System Using STELLA Model

Natural enemy-Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) system was studied based on the principle and method of system sciences to seek possible ways or strategies for pest population control.Conceptual model describing interrelated or interacting activities among different generations of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) and their natural enemy was established and further quantified with differential equations or function formulas.Dynamics of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) and natural enemy population density were simulated and analyzed respectively using STELLA.The results indicated that trends of both Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) and natural enemy population in six pest-control scenarios were different in their peak values and occurrence time,etc.A considerable quantity of natural enemy was essential to the effective control of occurrence and development of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee).Supplement of a number of natural enemy to rice cropping field at the early period of insect pest occurrence were recommended for enhancement the control on Cnaphalocrocis medinalis(Guenee) during the late growth period of paddy rice.