基于模糊综合评判的绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价

 在综合分析研究区孕灾环境、致灾因子与地质灾害分布关系基础上,建立了绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,并根据评价指标量化分级标准和方法,运用层次分析法确定各评价指标对地质灾害易发性贡献率。将层次分析法与模糊数学综合评判法结合,根据建立的隶属度函数构造模糊判断矩阵,对整个研究区的地质灾害易发程度进行二级模糊综合评判,得到了4个等级的地质灾害易发性分区。其中,地质灾害不易发区共为810个网格单元,面积约12960km²;地质灾害低易发区共为157个网格单元,面积约2512km²;地质灾害中易发区共为66个网格单元,面积约1056km²;地质灾害高易发区共为253个网格单元,面积约4048km²。根据易发性评价结果绘制了各易发性程度分区图件,并对各易发分区进行了分区评价。

Geo-hazard Susceptibility Evaluation of Mianyang City Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

On the basis of the relation distribution of geological hazards with prenatal environment and induced factors of geological hazards, the system of evaluation index and the standard and method for index quantification are established. At the same time, the weights of assessment indicators for geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation are ascertained by using analytic hierarchy process. And then, the fuzzy distinguish matrix upon the strength of membership function is established by combining analytical hierarchy process with fuzzy synthesize evaluation. The fuzzy synthesize assessment method selects the two-level model, and the evaluation set has four-stage standard, that is, the degree of geological hazard occurrence probability is divided into four stages. The not easy occurrence zone of geological hazards includes 810 grid units, its area is 12960 km², the low probability occurrence zone of geological hazards includes 157 grid units, its area is 2512km², the middle probability occurrence zone of geological hazards includes 66 grid units, its area is 1056 km², and the high probability occurrence zone of geological hazards includes 253 grid units, its area is 4048km². At the same time, zoned maps are drawn in the light of the evaluation result.