北江流域历年洪水强度大小的比较研究

以北江流域石角站为研究对象,利用目标转换式将投影寻踪模型的约束去除,并通过人工鱼群优化算法的自适应搜索,寻找到最优投影向量。结果表明:人工鱼群优化的无约束投影寻踪模型进行洪水强度大小比较时,有利于人工鱼群算法优化性能的发挥,并且所得的结果与实际情况相符。其中,北江流域石角站2006年的洪水是1954-2006年53 a强度最大的洪水,此外1964、1966、1968、1982、1994和1997年的洪水强度也较大,仅次于2006年。这说明北江流域的洪水情势不容轻视,要加强北江流域的防洪工作,确保北江大堤的防洪能力。

Comparative Research on the Magnitude of Flood Intensity during Previous Years of the Beijiang River Basin

Using the transformation method, the restraint of traditional projection model can be removed. The unconstrained projection model is optimized by artificial fish swarm algorithm and used to calculate the projection vector values of flood. The obtained results are comparable with the actual case. The Shijiao Station of the Beijiang River is taken as an example in this paper. The results indicate that this new model is more effective and reasonable than the traditional method for flood classification. During the period from 1954 to 2006, the flood in 2006 was the biggest one, the floods in 1964, 1966, 1968, 1982, 1994 and 1997 also showed higher intensity. This suggests that the flood situation should not be despised in the Biejiang River. The flood control work should be strengthened in order to ensure the flood control ability of the dike in the Beijiang River.