基于FBCREAM方法的飞机驾驶人因可靠性评估模型

飞机驾驶人为差错是导致飞行不安全事件/事故的重要因素之一，为有效预测飞机驾驶人因可靠性，减少人为差错，确保飞行安全，提出一种基于FBCREAM方法的飞机驾驶人因可靠性评估模型。考虑飞机驾驶的情境环境及人因特征，调整原始认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的人为差错形成条件使其更合理地表征驾驶舱中飞行员工作情境。引入模糊逻辑方法，利用隶属函数对人为差错形成条件的不确定性和模糊性进行建模。以人为差错形成条件的隶属度为输入参数，人为差错模式隶属度为输出构建贝叶斯网络模型，通过解模糊化方法计算人为差错概率精确值。选取单发故障情境环境下执行飞行任务进行实例分析，结果表明该方法能够准确评估飞机故障情境环境下的飞机驾驶人因可靠性，可为航空安全评估提供有效的工具和重要支持。

Human Reliability Assessment for aircraft operating based on an FBCREAM method

Human error is one of the most critical factors leading to aviation unsafe incidents/ accidents. A human reliability assessment model for aircraft operating based on an FBCREAM method is proposed to predict human error probability in cockpit. It can be further used to reduce human errors and increase aviation safety. Considering the aviation scenarios and human factors in cockpit, the performance shaping factors in the original CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method) are adjusted to more reasonably characterize pilot''s working situation in flight. Then, the fuzzy logic method is employed to model the uncertainty and ambiguity of performance shaping factors. The Bayesian network model is constructed with the membership of the performance shaping factors as the input parameter and the membership of the human error mode as the output. Finally, human error probability can be calculated by the defuzzification method. An experiment of the flight mission under the single-fault fault scenarios is performed. The results show that the proposed model can accurately calculate human error probability in unsafety incident. It can provide an effective tool and important support for aviation safety assessment.