中国进口原油运输船队规划案例

为探索中国油轮船队的发展空间, 优化油轮船队的规模和结构, 研究了一套航线配船与船队规划数学模型与方法, 并对中国进出口油轮船队的发展进行了系统的战略规划研究, 提出了中国油轮船队2000-2010年的发展战略规划. 十多年的规划期后, 本文介绍了当时提出的研究方法、研究结果, 对比了当时的规划结果与后来发展的实际状况. 结果表明, 建立的数学模型和设计的解决方法具有科学性和实用性, 采用现代系统分析技术进行航线配船与船队规划研究, 对大型企业的运力投资和发展具有特殊重要的战略意义. 最后, 总结了对国家或大型企业进行船队总体规划的经验, 归纳和提出了做好这项工作的建议.

Case study on fleet planning for carriers of China importing crude oil

To investigate the opportunity and perspective of developing Chinese oil carrier fleet and to rationalize the size and composition of the fleet, a series of mathematical models and methods for fleet allocation and planning have been studied, strategic planning of developing the fleet for importing and exporting crude oil for China has been systematically investigated, and the strategic development planning from 2000 to 2010 of Chinese crude oil fleet has been worked out. After eleven years of practice in the planning horizon, this paper presents the methodology and outcomes produced then and compares the outcomes with the corresponding facts of Chinese crude oil fleet development in the period from 2000 to 2010. Results show that the mathematical models and methods employed in the case study are of rationality and practicability, study on fleet allocation and planning with modern systems analysis technology is of special strategic significance to fleet investment and development of big shipping companies. Finally, experiences in planning a fleet for a country or for a big company are summarized and suggestions for doing better in this regard are given.