北京师范大学灾害风险科学研究回顾与展望

回顾了北京师范大学灾害风险科学研究团队33年来开展灾害风险科学研究取得的主要研究成果，分析了目前面临的主要挑战，展望了未来研究与学科建设的重点．灾害风险科学研究团队先后在区域自然灾害系统理论、综合减灾、灾害风险防范研究，重大自然灾害评估与国家减灾规划编制，以及发起并组织国际“综合风险防范”核心科学计划等方面做出了积极贡献．面对学科体系不完善、学术带头人不足、研究团队规模较小以及实验平台整合不力等挑战，亟需面向全球和国家防灾减灾、综合风险防范、绿色发展以及可持续性需求，在区域致灾-成害机制与动力学模拟、全球变化人口与经济系统风险精准评估、综合灾害（特别是碳排放）风险防范模式等领域争取重大突破，从而引领全球灾害风险科学，为建设地理学世界一流学科做出重要贡献． 

Disaster risk science at Beijing Normal University

Main research progresses made by the disaster risk team at Beijing Normal University in the past 33 years are reviewed, main challenges are analyzed, future research trends and mainstream areas are identified．Major contributions made include works in regional natural disaster system theory, comprehensive disaster reduction and disaster risk governance research, major natural disaster assessment and national disaster reduction planning, initiating and organizing international core scientific plan of “Integrated Risk Governance”．Imperfect discipline system, insufficient academic leaders, small research team and weak integration of experimental platforms are major challenges．Global and national disaster prevention and mitigation, integrated risk governance, green development and sustainability need to be addressed urgently．We will need to strive for major breakthroughs in regional disaster damage mechanism and dynamic simulation, accurate risk assessment of changing global population and economic system, and modelling multi-disaster (especially carbon emission) risk mitigation．We will strive to lead global disaster risk science, to build a world-class discipline of geography．