规模养殖循环经济增长上限系统反馈分析

基于系统动力学反馈分析理论和学习型组织理论创始人彼得·圣吉博士的成长上限理论,提出定性与定量紧密结合的增长上限顶点赋权图模型分析法.以地处井冈山西域的兰坡村规模养殖废弃物综合利用系统为例,对规模养殖循环经济系统进行反馈分析,利用该系统的增长上限顶点赋权图模型,定量地分析以沼气工程为纽带的规模养殖废弃物生物质能源开发利用、污染治理模式运行中蕴含的四条增长正反馈环、四条制约负反馈环的反馈力度和反馈规律,揭示阻碍其有效运行的上限子系统存在的原因.依据＂促进增长上限系统发展的杠杆解是消除制约因素＂的管理方针,基于系统内现有的资源条件,提出建立扩充沼气用户工程、沼液与灌溉用水分流工程、旱地与冬闲田蔬菜种植综合开发工程及政府建立配套政策等四条对策建议,形成有效的杠杆解.这一杠杆解及其分析方法在兰坡村规模养殖循环经济系统得到了成功的应用,对于我国农村目前广泛存在的种植业和养殖业相对不分离、有一定的土地消纳废弃物的养殖方式具有普遍的实用性.

A Systematical Feedback Analysis of Growth Limits of Livestock Breeding cyclic Economy

Based on the feedback analysis theory of System Dynamics and the limits to growth theory of Dr.Peter M Senge,the founder of the Learning Organization.A systemic analysis approach named Vertex Weighted Causal Loop Diagram model approach of limits to growth system is presented in this paper.The approach is applied to analyze the dynamic feedback law of Livestock Breeding cyclic Economy System of Lanpo,a village in the west region of JingGang Mountain.The feedback effect and feedback law of four promoting feedback loops and four balancing feedback loops in the system are educed after the qualitative and quantitative analyses of its Vertex Weighted Causal Loop Diagram model,and Reasons for the existence of the restrict subsystem of the livestock residues comprehensive utilization system contacted by biogas engineering are educed.Based on the leverage solution to the limits to growth structure of SD,which is "Don't push growth;remove the factors limiting growth",according to present resource condition of Lanpo village,Four general countermeasures,such as expanding biogas consumer engineering,separating irrigating water from bio-fertilizer engineering,vegetable planting in upland and winter fallow engineering,and government establishing corresponding policy,are presented at the end of the paper.The leverage solution and its analytic approach have been applied to Lanpo Livestock Breeding cyclic Economy System successfully.We hope that it will be pragmatic to Livestock Residues Comprehensive Utilization Systems in many rural areas where the breeding is not separated from planting absolutely,and have land to absorb partial breeding castoff in China.