| Logistic模型的参数估计及人口预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王学保,蔡果兰.Logistic模型的参数估计及人口预测[J].北京工商大学学报(自然科学版),2009,27(6):75-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王学保 蔡果兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央民族大学,理学院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央民族大学青年教师基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 用数值微分和线性拟合化技术对Logistics模型进行了参数估计,由此检验了2005~2007年中国总人口数的误差情况,其中2007年用相关参考文献的等差参数估算方法所得结果的相对误差为5.58%,而本文参数估算所得结果的相对误差为0.114‰,预测取得了理想的效果.
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| 关 键 词： | Logistic模型 人口预测 参数估计 数值微分 线性拟合 |
PARAMETER EVALUATION OF LOGISTIC MODEL AND POPULATION PREDICTION |
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| WANG Xue-bao,CAI Guo-lan.PARAMETER EVALUATION OF LOGISTIC MODEL AND POPULATION PREDICTION[J].Journal of Beijing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition,2009,27(6):75-78. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xue-bao CAI Guo-lan |
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| Institution: | WANG Xue-bao,CAI Guo-lan(Department of Mathematics,Central University for Nationality,Beijing 100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,parameters of the logistic model are evaluated by numerical differentiation and linearity simulation.The result shows that the forecasting consequence of this method was more effective than traditional methods of referenced literature by checking population of china from 2005 to 2007,in which the relative error of 2007 is 0.114‰ compared with 5.58% of interrelating literature. |
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| Keywords: | logistic model population prediction parameter evaluation numerical differentiation linearity simulation |
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