鄱阳湖区洪水灾害损失与社会经济发展关系的研究

该文分析了鄱阳湖区社会经济发展现状,并绘制了1995~2004年10年间GDP增长曲线图.结果表明,一次特大型或偏大型洪水对湖区内的社会经济发展产生较大的影响;运用洪水灾害损失评估模型计算出洪水灾害损失值,并绘制洪水灾害损失增长曲线图和洪水灾害损失与GDP比值曲线图,经分析得出防洪能力的提高可以减少洪水灾害的相对经济损失,而且当防洪能力提高到一定程度后,洪水灾害绝对经济损失也可能得到控制.然后,运用皮尔曲线得出典型洪水灾害直接经济损失增长曲线.

Study on Relationship between Loss of Flood Disaster and Development of Social Economy in Poyang Lake Area

This paper analyzes development of social economy in Poyang lake area at present and draws a curve of the growth of GDP from 1995 to 2004,which shows that super-huge flood or huger flood has greater effect on the development of social economy in Poyang lake area.Using assessment model of economic loss of flood disaster,this thesis calculates economic loss of flood disaster and draws the curve of the growth of loss of flood disaster and the curve draft of ratio of loss of flood disaster to GDP.After the study,it is illustrated that the promotion of capability of anti-flood is to decrease relative economic loss of flood disaster,moreover,when capability of anti-flood reaches a certain degree,absolute economic loss of flood disaster can be controlled.Then,according to P-curve,the growth curve of direct economic loss of typical flood disaster is shown.