新能源汽车“双积分”政策对生产商策略与社会福利影响研究

为进一步促进我国新能源汽车行业的发展,工信部等五部委于2017年9月印发了《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量和新能源汽车积分并行管理办法》.论文在考虑实施"双积分"政策的前提下,分别构建模型以研究乘用车市场在完全竞争、新能源汽车生产商具有市场势力和传统汽车生产商具有市场势力的三种情况下,乘用车生产商各自的最优决策及最优社会福利.此外,论文进一步定量分析了政策性因素、市场性因素和成本性因素变动对结果的综合作用效果及各因素的贡献程度.研究结果表明:1)"双积分"政策可以有效地促进我国新能源汽车发展,相较而言在完全竞争的市场环境下政策效果最为明显;2)"双积分"政策的收紧会给传统汽车生产商的产量和利润带来负面的影响,对于新能源汽车生产商的产量、利润及社会福利的影响具有不确定性;3)但随着乘用车市场愈发成熟和单位生产成本的下降,市场性因素和成本性因素可抵消政策性因素带来的不确定性;4)此外,成本性因素在所有模型下均表现出最为明显的正向贡献作用.

Impact of dual-credit policy on automakers strategies and social welfare

New energy vehicle credit program and corporate average fuel consumption regulation was issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2017 to further promote the development of new energy vehicles. In this study, three models were developed to study the impact of dual-credit policy on automakers strategies and social welfare under different market power. In addition, the comprehensive effect of policy factors, market factors and cost factors and their contributions were further analyzed. The obtained results show that: (i) the dual-credit policy can effectively promote the development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the effect is most efficient in the competitive market; (ii) more stringent dual-credit policy will definitely have a negative impact on the profits of traditional automakers. However, it will have an uncertain impact on the production, profits of new energy automakers and social welfare; (iii) with the maturity of the vehicle market and the reduction of unit production costs, market factors and cost factors can offset the uncertainties brought by policy factors. Besides, the cost factors always reflect the greatest positive effect under these three mentioned models.