政府农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联分析

运用动态计量经济模型中的分布滞后模型、ADF检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验对政府农业科技投入与农业经济增长建立了联系，结果表明，政府农业科技投入促进了农业经济增长。政府农业科技投入每增加1％，农业经济增长在当年及其滞后3年期内累计增加0．668％，但两者之间并没有形成长期稳定的动态关联机制，没有形成互为双向Granger因果原因。研究结果为我国政府指定农业政策提供了有力依据。

STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATION MECHANISM OF THE GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY AND THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

Employing methods of PDL, ADF unit root test, cointegration analysis and Granger Causality test of dynamic econometrics, the dynamic relationship between the government investment in agricultural science ＆ technology and the agricultural economic growth is analyzed. The results show the agricultural economic growth in current or subsequent three years improve 0. 66818% with the 1% increasing of the government investment in agricultural science ＆ technology, but this impetus can not form the long-time and stable influence on agricultural economic growth. The analysis of Granger causes shows the government investment is justly single-direction reason for the agriculture economic growth. Therefore the research results supply the powerful support for the formulation of government agricuhure policy.