| 水库调度中的风险分析及决策方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄强,苗隆德,王增发.水库调度中的风险分析及决策方法[J].西安理工大学学报,1999,15(4):6-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄强 苗隆德 王增发 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西,西安,710048 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对水库调度的风险问题，探讨了定性风险分析方法和定量风险分析方法，着重探讨了定量风险分析方法中的概率与数理统计分析法、模拟分析法、马尔柯夫过程分析法和模糊数学分析法。引入了不同的风险决策方法，并结合实例进行了分析计算。
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| 关 键 词： | 水库调度 风险分析 风险决策 风险级别 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4710(1999)04-0006-05 |
Analysis and Decision Methods for the Risk in Reservoir Operation |
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| HUANG Qiang,MIAO Long-de,WANG Zeng-fa.Analysis and Decision Methods for the Risk in Reservoir Operation[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,1999,15(4):6-10. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Qiang MIAO Long-de WANG Zeng-fa |
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| Institution: | HUANG Qiang;
(Xi |
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| Abstract: | With an aim at the risk problem in reservoir operation, this paper discusses the risk analysis methods of both quality and quantity, and put stress on the analysis of probability and statistics in quantity risk analysis method, simulation analysis method, Malkof process analysis method and fuzzy maths, and analysis method, etc. Also, this paper introduces the different risk decision method, and determines risk classes and conducts analytical calculation in combination with actual example. |
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| Keywords: | reservoir operation risk analysis risk decision risk class |
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