创新产品市场扩散的非线性组合预测模型

提出了一种新的非线性组合预测扩散模型，并给出了相应的反向传播学习算法，理论研究与应用举例表明：该方法具有很强的学习与泛化能力，在处理诸如创新扩散时间序列这种具有一定程度不确性的组合建模与扩散预测方面有很好的应用价值。

Study on Nonlinear Combinatorial Forecasting Model for the Marketing Diffusion of Innovation Product

Growth and diffusion models have been introduced in such diverse fields such as psychology, economics, marketing, epidemiology, and biology. In this paper, a new nonlinear combinatorial diffusion model is also proposed to remove deficiencies associated with the current diffusion model such as trend curve models, hybrid models. Furthermore the corresponding back propagation learning algorithm is put forward. Theoretical analysis and forecasting examples all show that the new technique has reinforcement learning properties and universalized capabilities. With respect to combined modeling and forecasting of innovation diffusion time series in nonlinear systems, which have some uncertainties, the methods are feasible and effective.WT5HZ]