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| 自然灾害对我国农业全要素生产率的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 李杨,伍贤旭,高鸣,李景保.自然灾害对我国农业全要素生产率的影响[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2012,35(3):84-88. |
| 作者姓名： | 李杨 伍贤旭 高鸣 李景保 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南农业大学经济学院,中国长沙,410128 2. 财政部财政科学研究所,中国北京,100036 3. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,中国长沙,410081 |
| 基金项目： | 湖南省软科学基金资助项目，湖南省情与决策咨询研究课题资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 我国是自然灾害较为严重的国家之一,自然灾害已经威胁到我国农业的正常生产经营.首先使用Malmquist指数测算出我国1994～2010年的农业全要素生产率,然后通过Granger和协整分析检验自然灾害对农业全要素生产率的影响程度.结果表明:(1)我国农业全要素生产率在1994～2010年存在周期性波动；(2)自然灾害是农业全要素生产率的格兰杰因,其在短期内的增加抑制了后者的提高；(3)长期来看,农业成灾率每增加1％,我国的农业全要素生产率将下降0.0141％. |
| 关 键 词： | 自然灾害 农业全要素生产率 Malmquist指数 格兰杰因果检验 协整分析 |
Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural TFP of Our Country |
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| LI Yang , WU Xian-xu , GAO Ming , LI Jing-bao.Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural TFP of Our Country[J].Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University,2012,35(3):84-88. | |
| Authors: | LI Yang WU Xian-xu GAO Ming LI Jing-bao |
| Institution: | 1.College of Economics,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China; 2.Research Institute of Fiscal Science,Ministry of Finance,Beijing 100036,China; 3.College of Resources and Environmental Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China) |
| Abstract: | China is one of the countries mostly affected by natural disasters that have threatened the normal production of the agriculture.Agricultural Total Factor Productivity(TFP) of our country in 1994～2010 is firstly calculated by Malmquist index.Then the influence degree of natural disasters on agricultural TFP is tested using Granger Causality test and cointegration analysis.The results are represented as follows:Firstly,Chinese agricultural TFP fluctuates periodically from 1994 to 2010;Secondly,natural disasters are the Granger cause of agricultural TFP.That is,natural disasters suppress the improvement of agricultural TFP in the short term;Lastly,Chinese agricultural TFP will decrease 0.014 1% with one percent increase of agriculture areas affected by natural disasters in the long term. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters agricultural total factor productivity Malmquist index Granger causality test cointegration analysis |
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