人机环耦合效应下卫星天线装配概率风险分析

卫星天线展开机构装配工序复杂，主要依赖人工装调，装配过程中可靠性安全性风险因素众多且相互耦合，直接影响天线装配质量和效率。为此，提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的概率风险评价方法。首先，在全面识别装配过程风险因素的基础上，构建事件树模型，并采用贝叶斯网络建立考虑人机环风险耦合的中间事件可靠性模型。然后，采用人因可靠性等方法进行模型量化与不确定性分析，并开展敏感性分析与风险重要度排序。最后，以某型星载合成孔径雷达(synthetic aperture radar, SAR)天线展开机构为例，说明了所提方法的工程适用性。该方法可为飞船、运载火箭等人机耦合系统的风险分析与量化提供一定的参考。

Probabilistic risk analysis of satellite antenna assembly considering man-machine-environment coupling effect

The assembly process of satellite antenna deployable mechanism is complex and mainly depends on manual adjustment. The reliability and safety risk factors in the assembly process are numerous and mutually coupled, which directly affect the quality and efficiency of antenna assembly. Therefore, an approach of probabilistic risk assessment based on Bayesian networks is proposed. Firstly, based on the comprehensive identification of risk factors in the assembly process, the event tree model is constructed, and an intermediate event reliability model of man-machine-environment coupling is established by Bayesian network. Then, human reliability and other methods are used for model quantification and uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis and risk importance ranking are carried out. Finally, the engineering applicability of the proposed method is illustrated by taking a certain type of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) antenna deployment mechanism as an example, and the method can provide a reference for risk analysis and quantification of man-machine coupling system such as spacecraft and launch vehicle.