“模糊控制”模型在农业预测中的应用

本文将预测过程模拟成一个“模糊控制系统”，以预测因子作为系统的输入，预测量作为系统的输入。根据历史资料确定系统的特性，建立模糊控制预测模型；然后，在一定输入条件下，通过预测模型，即可求得预测输出。这一模型本质上属语言控制模型，无需知道输入量与输出量之间函数关系，与经典的数学模型相比更具有广泛的适应性。文中用某地1980－1987年棉花烂铃病流行趋势资料为实例建立模型，对1998－1991年的棉花烂铃病流行趋势进行预测，收到了良好的效果。

Application of "Fuzzy Control"Model in Agricultural Forecast

This paper simulates the forecast process as a"fuzzy control system",takes the forecast factors as the input data ,and the forecast quantities as the output data.The features of the system is determined and the fuzzy control forecast model is built up based on historical materials.And then the forecast output data can be obtained through forecast model under certain input conditions.Essentially,this model belongs to the model of speed controlling without being aware of the functional relations between input and output ,therefore it has more extensive adaptabililty compared with classical mathematical models.In this paper the model was built up by using the data of the prevalence tendency of cotton's boll-rot in a certain place during the period from 1980 to 1987,and the prevalence tendency of boll-rot in the place during the period from 1988 to 1991 was forecasted,gaining good results.