历史洪水重现期的误差对设计洪水的影响

探讨了历史洪水及其重现期的误差对洪水频率计算成果的影响及不同适线准则下计算结果的差别。计算表明：历史洪水重现期越长，设计洪水成果的稳定性越好；精度越高，按平方和准则（离差平方和达最小）比绝对值准则（离差绝对值之和达最小）适线更好一些。在本文采用的适线准则前提下，尽管历史洪水重现期有一定误差，但仍能有效地提高设计洪水成果的可靠性。

Effect of Estimation Error of Historical Flood Recurrence Interval on Design Flood

The effect is studied of historical floods and the estimation errors of their recurrence intervals on the calculated results of flood frequency, and the different results under different curve fitting criteria are discussed. Calculation shows that the longer the historical flood recurrence interval, the better stability and the higher calculation precision the design flood is; that the result under the square sum criterion (the sum of square error is minimum) is better than that under the absolute value criterion (the sum of absolute values of errors is minimum);and that it is effective to use historical flood in improving design flood reliability even though their recurrece intervals estimated involve error.