汽油价格上调影响下出行者出行方式选择

为分析汽油价格上调对居民出行方式选择行为的影响，对城市居民出行者进行调查，获取不同情境下出行者的出行方式选择行为，将出行者划分为有车出行者和未来五年内有购车意愿的无车出行者，采用混合Logit模型构建两种群体在汽油价格上调影响下的出行方式选择模型，分析各影响因素的显著性。研究结果表明：汽油价格增长率对出行者出行方式选择存在显著性影响；对于有车出行者来说，汽油价格的上涨对高收入出行者改变小汽车出行影响较小，收入与选择小汽车出行概率呈正相关；年龄、收入、出行时间与出行距离对无车出行者未来选择小汽车出行有显著影响。研究结果可为我国汽油价格调整和城市交通需求管理策略的制定提供理论依据。

The Influence of Gasoline Price Hike on Travel Mode Choice

Recent surge in gasoline prices has impacted travel costs which in turn have influenced model choice by travelers. Anticipating the mode choice of the public has become important in strategically developing future transportation systems. Urban travelers were surveyed. Travel mode choice behavior of travelers in different situations were obtained. The travelers were divided into private vehicles owners and non-owners groups with be willing to buy a car in the next five years, and the mixed Logit model was used to construct the travel mode choice models of the two groups under the influence of gasoline price hike. The significance of each factor was analyzed. Results show that the hiking rate of gasoline prices has a significant impact on travelers" choice of travel modes. For the private vehicle owners group, the rise of gasoline price has little impact on high-income travelers" change of car travel, and income is positively correlated with the probability of choosing by car. Age, income, travel time and travel distance have a significant impact on non-owners travelers" choice of car travel in the future. The research conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for the adjustment of gasoline prices and the formulation of traffic demand management strategies in China.