清代珠江流域旱涝灾害变化特征与R/S分析

在整理清代1644-1911年的历史文献资料的基础上,统计了珠江流域以及各个子流域的旱涝灾害发生频次.利用滑动平均、小波分析等方法研究了清代珠江流域的旱涝灾害演变趋势和周期;通过R/S分析计算Hurst指数,预测未来旱涝变化特征,并通过近50年的气象降水资料计算的SPI指数对预测结果进行验证.结果表明:清代珠江流域洪涝灾害的频次整体高于干旱灾害的频次,其中1695年、 1860年和1894年既发生了流域性干旱也发生了流域性洪涝;旱涝频次的主要振荡周期为32～34 a;珠江流域未来的干旱、洪涝灾害整体变化将与过去的变化趋势一致,且流域洪涝序列的Hurst指数比干旱序列的Hurst指数更为接近1.0,说明清代珠江流域洪涝序列的趋势延续性比干旱序列更强.

Characteristics and R/S Analysis of Drought/Flood Disasters in Pearl River Basin during Qing Dynasty

Through sorting out the historical documents and data of the Qing Dynasty from 1644 to 1911, the frequency of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin and various sub basins have been calculated. The trend and cycle of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin in Qing Dynasty have been studied by means of moving average and wavelet analysis. The Hurst index has been calculated by R/S analysis to predict the characteristics of drought and flood in the future, and the prediction results are verified by the SPI index calculated by the meteorological precipitation data in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin during the Qing Dynasty is higher than the frequency of drought disasters. In 1695, 1860 and 1894, there was basin drought and basin flood. The main oscillation period of the frequency of drought and flood is in 32-34a. The overall changes of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin will be in accordance with the past trends, and the Hurst index of the flood sequence of the river basin is closer to 1 than the Hurst index of the drought sequence, indicating that the trend continuity of the flood sequence is stronger than that of the drought sequence.