| 奥运场馆建设项目工期风险度量框架 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝迪飞,方东平,王守清,戴孟东,吕小泉.奥运场馆建设项目工期风险度量框架[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版)网络.预览,2007(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝迪飞 方东平 王守清 戴孟东 吕小泉 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学建设管理系 北京100084(祝迪飞，方东平，王守清)，北京市2008工程建设指挥部办公室 北京100029(戴孟东)，北京奥组委工程部 北京100007(吕小泉) |
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| 基金项目： | 北京奥组委课题(040051)，国家科技部国际科技合作重点项目计划(2003DFB00015) |
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| 摘 要： | 项目工期风险度量框架是对奥运场馆建设工期进行风险管理的基础。通过对项目建模理论的比较与综合以及奥运场馆建设风险识别和重要性排序结果,确定了工期风险源分类。通过风险发生链分析,从各风险源所属的重要风险中提取出工期风险变量,并根据专家意见对其进行了分解和修订。在框架的基础上,建立了项目风险特征图等风险分析方法。框架是对工期风险因素的系统化、结构化,为今后同类研究提供了理论支持。在该文基础上开发的风险度量工具已在奥运场馆建设中得到了实际应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 建设项目 工期 风险 度量 奥运场馆 |
Project schedule risk measurement frame-work for Beijing Olympic venue construction |
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| Authors: | ZHU Difei FANG Dongping WANG Shouqing DAI Mengdong LV Xiaoquan |
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| Institution: | ZHU Difei1,FANG Dongping1,WANG Shouqing1,DAI Mengdong2,LV Xiaoquan3 |
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| Abstract: | The project schedule risk measurement framework is developed on the basis for the management of schedule risks for the Beijing 2008 Olympic venue construction.The fundamental risks were identified through risk identification and significance ranking.A "Cause-Effect" analysis of the risk chain was used to look into the relationships among risks and extract the schedule risk variables.The risk variables were reviewed by experts and broken down into sub-variables to develop a project risk profile.The framework is the systematization of project schedule risks which provide theoretical support to further research.The project risk measurement tool has been furthermore developed based on this paper and has been used in the risk management of Beijing Olympic venue construction. |
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| Keywords: | construction project schedule risk measurement Olympic venue |
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