一种考虑风险传播与预期故障分析的配电网信息物理系统安全性评估方法

伴随着电力系统与信息系统交融的程度不断加深，配电网逐渐发展为高度融合的信息物理系统(cyber-physical system，CPS)，这对配电网的运行带来了一定程度的风险。当信息网局部节点失效时，可能使得电力网受到大规模扰动，从而导致电力网负载大量丢失甚至崩溃。基于信息网风险传播理论与预期故障分析方法提出一种配电网CPS安全性评估方法。首先分析CPS的结构框架，建立配电网CPS关联矩阵模型，再根据信息-物理系统的耦合相关性，考虑信息网节点间风险传播，构建信息-物理组合预想故障集，并提出安全性评估指标，最后通过仿真模型验证了该方法的合理性。

A CPS security evaluation method for distribution network considering risk propagation and expected fault analysis

With the deepening integration of power system and information system, the distribution network has gradually developed into a highly integrated information physical system (CPS), which brings a certain degree of risk to the operation of distribution network. When the local nodes of the information network fail, the power network may be disturbed on a large scale, resulting in a large loss or even collapse of the power network load. Based on information network risk propagation theory and expected fault analysis method, a CPS security evaluation method for distribution network is proposed. Firstly, the structural framework of CPS is analyzed, and the CPS incidence matrix model of distribution network is established. Then, according to the coupling correlation of information physical system and considering the risk propagation between information network nodes, the expected fault set of information physical combination is constructed, and the safety evaluation index is proposed. Finally, the rationality of this method is verified by the simulation model.