| Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM（1,1） model |
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| 作者姓名： | Yuhong Wang Qin Liu Jianrong Tang Wenbin Cao Xiaozhong Li |
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| 作者单位： | School of Business, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China |
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| 基金项目： | This work was supported by the Key Project of National Social Science Foundation （12AZDll 1）, the National Project for Education Science Planning （EFA 11035 i）, the Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China （12YJCZH207）, the Key Project for Jiangsu Province Social Science Foundation （12DDA011）, and the Jiangsu College of Humanities and Social Sciences outside Campus Research Base： Chinese Development of Strategic Research Base for Internet of Things. |
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| 摘 要： | A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM（1,1） model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM（1,1） model relatively.
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| 关 键 词： | 优化模拟 预测精度 模型 转基因 指数分布序列 灰色微分方程 灰色系统理论 时间响应函数 |
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