| 厦门市机动车保有量的预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张东军,邓丽娟,马龙俊,姜伟.厦门市机动车保有量的预测方法[J].集美大学学报(自然科学版),2016,0(1):42-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张东军 邓丽娟 马龙俊 姜伟 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 集美大学航海学院，福建 厦门 361021；2. 重庆交通大学交通运输学院，重庆 400074） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了预测厦门市未来5年、15年的机动车保有量，以厦门市历年机动车保有量为研究对象，选取地区GDP、财政总收入、人均可支配收入、燃料零售价格指数、常住人口、公路通车里程等6个影响较大的数据指标.采用传统的非线性回归方法，主成份分析与Logistic模型相结合的方法，综合考虑两种预测方法及其结果，预测厦门市2020年、2030年的机动车保有量分别约为220万辆、530万辆.
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| 关 键 词： | 机动车保有量 非线性回归 因子分析 Logistic模型 |
Forecasting Method of Motor Vehicle Population in Xiamen |
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| ZHANG Dong-jun,DENG Li-juan,MA Long-jun,JIANG Wei.Forecasting Method of Motor Vehicle Population in Xiamen[J].the Editorial Board of Jimei University(Natural Science),2016,0(1):42-48. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Dong-jun DENG Li-juan MA Long-jun JIANG Wei |
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| Institution: | (1. Navigation Institute,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;2.School of Traffic & Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to forecast motor vehicle population in Xiamen over the next 5 and 15 years，this paper takes the motor vehicle populations in recent years in Xiamen as objectives，then select six major influtical factors that contain regional GDP，financial gross income，per capita disposable income，fuel retail price index，resident population as well as traffic mileage of highways.Using the traditional method of nonlinear regression，and the method of combining principal component analysis with Logistic model，the two methods and their outcomes are considered，and the motor vehicle populations for 2020 and 2030 are forecast to be 2.2 mand 5.3 m，respectively. |
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| Keywords: | motor vehicle population nonlinear regression factor analysis Logistic model |
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