中美两国三地股指的同步性与传导机制——-基于次贷危机以来道琼斯、恒生和上海综合指数日数据

运用一般到特殊的建模方法, 以美国次贷危机以来的道琼斯、恒生和上海综合指数日数据建立中美两国三 地股指的动力学系统模型．结果表明, 三地股指系统具有非线性传导机制, 有一个不动点吸引子, 具有 较高的同步性．可视化冲击实验显示, 三地股指系统是一个受控系统, 只有中美两国股市形成向上合力, 那么就会产生同步效应, 三地股指才能尽快走出低谷.

The co-movements and transmission mechanism of stock indexes in three places of Sino-America: Based on Dow Jones, Hang Seng,Shanghai Composite Index daily data since the sub-prime mortgage crisis

According to the special-to-general modeling,this paper built a non-linear dynamic model (D~3NLDS)with daily stock index data of Dow Jones,Heng Sheng,and Shanghai Composite Index since the sub-prime mortgage crisis.We found that,the system of stock index in these three places is a nonlinear co-integration one,which exits one fixed points attractor and shows a high Co-movements.Visual shock-response shows that,the stock-index system of these three places is a controlled system,as long as China and US stock m...