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| Decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff | |
| 作者姓名： | Song Yexin Yin Di & Chen Mianyun . |
| 作者单位： | Song Yexin 1，Yin Di 2 & Chen Mianyun 31. Department of Basic Courses，Naval University of Engineering，Wuhan 430033，P. R. China;2. College of Information and Electrical Engineering，Naval University of Engineering，Wuhan 430033，P. R. China;3. Department of Control Science and Engineering，Huazhong University of Sciecne and Technology，Wuhan 430074，P. R. China |
| 基金项目： | ThisprojectwassupportedbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(79970025). |
| 摘 要： | 1.INTRODUCTION Aproblemoftenfacedbymanydecisionmakersisthe selectionofsomealternativesinrandomuncertainsit uationsinwhichprobabilitiesofeventsareprovided byhumanbeings.Humanbeings,ratherthanbeing abletoprovideexactspecificprobabilities,areusually bestatassessingprobabilitiesinimpreciselinguistic termssuchashigh,low,about70%.Anaturaland usefulwayofrepresentingimpreciselinguistecproba bilitiesiswithafuzzysubset1～3],afuzzyprobabili ty.Yager4]investigatedtheproblemofdecision makingwithf… |
Decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff |
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| Song Yexin ,Yin Di & Chen Mianyun ..Decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff[J].Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics,2005,16(1). | |
| Authors: | Song Yexin Yin Di Chen Mianyun |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Basic Courses, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, P. R. China 2. College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, P. R. China 3. Department of Control Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Sciecne and Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China |
| Abstract: | A novel method for decision making with fuzzy probability assessments and fuzzy payoff is presented. The consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. A fuzzy aggregate algorithm is used to indicate the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives. The level sets of each fuzzy expected payoff are then obtained by solving linear programming models. Based on a defuzzification function associated with the level sets of fuzzy number and a numerical integration formula (Newton-Cotes formula), an effective approach to rank the fuzzy expected payoff of alternatives is also developed to determine the best alternative. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. |
| Keywords: | decision making fuzzy probabilities fuzzy payoff linear programming numerical integration |
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