The Precautionary Principle: Scientific Uncertainty and Type I and Type II Errors |
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Authors: | John Lemons Kristin Shrader-Frechette Carl Cranor |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Life Sciences, University of New England, Biddeford, Maine 04005, USA;(2) Environmental Sciences and Policy Program and Department of Philosophy, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA |
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Abstract: | We provide examples of the extent and nature of environmental and human health problems and show why in the United States
prevailing scientific and legal burden of proof requirements usually cannot be met because of the pervasiveness of scientific
uncertainty. We also provide examples of how may assumptions, judgments, evaluations, and inferences in scientific methods
are value-laden and that when this is not recognized results of studies will appear to be more factual and value-neutral than
warranted. Further, we show that there is a "tension" between the use of the 95 percent confidence rule as a normative basis
to reduce speculation in scientific knowledge and other public policy and moral concerns embodied by the adoption of a precautionary
principle. Finally, although there is no precise agreement regarding what a precautionary principle might entail, we make
several recommendations regarding the placement of the burden of proof and the standard of proof that ought to be required
in environmental and human health matters.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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Keywords: | Precautionary principle Sustainable development Agenda 21 Scientific uncertainty |
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