| 基于改进遗传规划法的农村劳动力迁移预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫震,何青,王东平.基于改进遗传规划法的农村劳动力迁移预测[J].北京理工大学学报,2010(S1):1-4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫震 何青 王东平 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院, 北京 102206;华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院, 北京 102206;河北农业大学现代科技学院, 河北,保定 071001 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省社会科学基金资助项目(HB08BYJ030);长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目(IRT0720) |
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| 摘 要： | 将改进遗传规划法应用到劳动力迁移预测中,采用模拟退火动态设置遗传算子概率,提高了收敛速度和效率. 通过训练样本对程序进行训练,建立了多维劳动力迁移预测模型,且由检验样本对模型进行了检验. 结果表明:搜索到的函数具有良好的拟合和预测效果,可有效避免因多种不确定因素影响造成的人为误差. 与时间序列和传统遗传规划预测比较,改进遗传规划法预测精度为时间序列预测精度的2.3倍,运行时间为传统遗传规划法1/6,利用改进遗传规划法进行农村劳动力迁移预测具有良好的实用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 劳动力迁移 不确定性因素 改进的遗传规划 模拟退火 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/3/30 0:00:00 |
Rural Labor Migration Prediction on Improved Genetic Programming |
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| YAN Zhen,HE Qing and WANG Dong-ping.Rural Labor Migration Prediction on Improved Genetic Programming[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2010(S1):1-4. |
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| Authors: | YAN Zhen HE Qing and WANG Dong-ping |
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| Institution: | School of Energy & Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Energy & Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;Department of Modern Science & Technology, Agricultural University of Hebei, Baoding, Hebei 071001, China |
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| Abstract: | Improved genetic programming is applied to predict rural labor migration. For improve speed and efficiency, simulated annealing is adopted to set up dynamically genetic operator probability. After the program trained by training samples, multi-dimensional prediction model of rural labor migration is established, and it is tested by test samples. The results shows that the function has good fitting and forecasting effect and can effectively avoid artificial error which is formed by various uncertain factors. Comparison with time series and general genetic programming prediction, the accuracy of improved genetic progamming prediction is 2.3 times for time series, and its run speed is 1/6 for general genetic programming. So rural labor migration prediction on improved genetic programming has favorable practical value. |
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| Keywords: | rural labor migration uncertain factors improved genetic programming simulated annealing |
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