基于泰勒级数法的边坡稳定性分析方法

边坡稳定可靠度分析方法考虑了岩土材料不确定性对边坡稳定的影响,是一种更符合实际情况的分析方法.然而,可靠度分析方法理论较复杂,应用过程中对参数统计、模型计算等方面的要求较高,不利于工程推广.基于此,本文将Duncan提出的一种简化可靠度分析方法-泰勒级数法引入到边坡稳定分析中.泰勒级数法是一种基于安全系数法的可靠度分析方法,通过分析安全系数法中所包含各参数不确定性对安全系数的影响,求得边坡稳定失效概率.首先,分析形成了在边坡稳定分析中应用泰勒级数法的基本步骤.继而,通过举例分析了应用泰勒级数法所需参数的标准差求解方法.最后,利用工程实例说明,泰勒级数法在边坡稳定分析中具有较强的可操作性,为边坡稳定可靠度分析提供了一条新的思路.

Study on Slope Stability Analysis Based on Taylor Series Method

Slope stability analysis based on reliabilities method which includes the uncertainty of soil parameters is a realistic analysis method.Due to the complicated theory of reliability analysis method and the high requirements of parameters statistics and model calculation,the reliability analysis method is not conductive to engineering application.In order to solve this problem,a simplified method,Taylor series technique,which is summarized by Duncan,is introduced into slope stability reliability analysis.Taylor series technique is a reliability method based on safety factor method,the probability of failure is concluded by the analysis of the uncertainty of concerned parameters in the safety factor method.Firstly,the procedure of applying this method in slope stability analysis is studied.Secondly,the methods of calculating parameters’ standard deviation are summarized.Finally,engineering application shows that Taylor series technique is feasible and practical in slope stability analysis and it provides a new reliability analysis method of slope stability.