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Linear combination of forecasts with an intercept: A bayesian approach
Authors:Robert F Bordley
Abstract:The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted average of the n expert forecasts plus the decision-maker's prior forecast.
Keywords:Combining forecasts  Bayesian expert use  Biased forecasts
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