祁连山北坡青海云杉的潜在分布

【目的】确定适宜环境下青海云杉的分布潜力,可以为区域生态恢复、生态潜力评估提供重要依据。【方法】基于祁连山国家自然保护区的物种分布数据及相关环境数据,利用生态位物种分布模型对青海云杉进行较高空间精度的潜在分布模拟,并对影响其分布特征的关键因子进行分析。【结果】最大熵模型(MaxEnt)、生物气候模型(Bioclim)、域模型(Domain)、生态位因子分析模型(ENFA)的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的下面积值(AUC)分别为0.977、0.936、0.959、0.904,均有较高的诊断价值,结合物种实际分布与模型AUC值,MaxEnt模型模拟效果最佳。【结论】运用空间分析,归纳多种环境要素与青海云杉之间的定量关系,并通过标准差椭圆方法,界定祁连山国家自然保护区内青海云杉分布的环境要素边界,可为区域生态建设提供支撑,具有重要的科学与实践价值。

Potential distributions of Picea crassifolia on the north slope of Qilian Mountains

【Objective】Determining the distribution potential of Picea crassifolia in a suitable environment can provide an important basis for a regional ecological restoration and potential assessment. 【Method】Based on the species distribution data and related environmental data in the study area, a species distribution model based on the ecological niche was used to simulate the potential distribution of P. crassifolia with high spatial accuracy, and the key factors affecting its distribution characteristics were analyzed. 【Result】The results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the MaxEnt, Bioclim, Domain, and ecology niche factor analysis (ENFA) models were 0.977, 0.936, 0.959, and 0.904, respectively, which had high diagnostic values. Combined with the actual distribution of species and AUC values, the MaxEnt model had the best simulation effect. 【Conclusion】Using spatial analysis, the quantitative relationship between various environmental factors and P. crassifolia was summarized, and the boundary of environmental factors in the distribution area of P. crassifolia on the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains was defined using the standard deviation ellipse method, which provides a support for the regional ecological construction and has an important scientific and practical value.