三江地区积雪变化与气候之间的关系——以宝清县为例

基于三江地区宝清县近20a来观测记录，利用3种方法检验了三江地区季节性积雪、冷季（11月．次年3月）降水量和冷季平均气温的变化趋势。结果表明，季节性积雪表现为弱的增加趋势（年平均增长率为0．005％），冷季降水量年平均增长率为0．317％，同期冷季平均气温上升1．32℃。通过相关分析表明，积雪与冷季降水量呈正相关，而与气温呈负相关。冷季降水量的增加促进了积雪的增加，但由于冷季气温升高趋势大于降水量增加趋势，冷季气温升高导致初雪日延迟而终雪日提前，缩短了积雪时间。因此，在全球和区域气候持续变暖的背景下，三江地区积雪量有可能减少。图5，表3，参19。

Variation Trends of Snow-cover in Sanjiang Plain anti their Relation to Temperature and Precipitation

On the basis of observed records of annual maximum snow-cover depth, monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation at Baoqing County,the variation trends about the snow-cover depth, cold season （Nor.to Mar. ） precipitation and cold season temperature were analyzed by three methods. The results showed that an increasing trend of the snow-cover depth was not obvious （average annual growth rate is 0.005 % ）, average annual growth rate of cold season precipitation was 0.31%, and cold season temperature rose 1.32℃. A positive correlation existed between snow-cover depth and cold season precipitation, but the correlation between snow-cover depth and cold season temperature was negative. The increase of cold season precipitation enhanced the snow-cover depth, but the variation trend of temperature rising in cold season was higher than the variation trend of precipitation increasing in cold season, the temperature rising would induce the delay of the first snow and the advance of the last snow, shorten the duration of snow-cover. Therefore, the snow-cover volume would decrease in the background of global and regional climate wanning.